Broadway Show Ticket Sales Analysis w/e 09/11/2016

This week’s notable movements on Broadway are:

“School of Rock” Takes a Major Dip Alongside Hit Musicals

In the week ending September 11, 2016, Andrew Lloyd Webber’s School of Rock – the Musical saw a major decrease in ticket sales.  It brought in a weekly gross of $767,326, which is a decrease of $305,131 from the week before.  This is the lowest gross the musical has brought in in almost a year.  The weekly gross represented just 50.36% of its gross potential, while the average percentage reached of gross potential across the whole run thus far is 70.19%.  For the entire summer, and many weeks prior to that, School of Rock brought in over one million dollars per week.  Therefore, this significant dip is troubling for the show, which has been performing very well in a competitive season and had been demonstrating some promise of longevity.  There was no major cast change that would have set off such as stark decrease in demand, nor was there a difference in the number of performances this past week as compared to the week before.  Therefore, it’s possible this was just an anomaly week, but it will be interesting to watch whether School of Rock can sustain itself beyond one year of performances.  It has been running since November 9, 2015.  Meanwhile, the other major decreases in ticket sales were seen by some of the long-running hit musicals, but in those cases, the decreases were less significant to the overall grosses.  Specifically, Aladdin saw a decrease of $194,987, which brought it to a weekly gross of $1,254,386, or 85.0% of its gross potential.  Furthermore, The Lion King went down by $154,660, bringing it to a weekly gross of $1,713,029, or 91.3% of its gross potential.

“Beautiful” Still an Audience Favorite; “Holiday Inn” Still Struggling

This past week, the biggest increase in ticket sales was seen by Beautiful: The Carole King Musical.  With demand long outlasting the original cast, the musical is still thriving almost three years into its run.  Having begun previews on November 21, 2013, the lead role of Carole King was first played by Jessie Mueller until March 6, 2015, and is now played by Chilina Kennedy.  Last week, the show brought in $901,959, which is an increase of $152,197 from the week before, and which represents 89.6% of its gross potential.  With a top ticket price of $299, the average paid admission was $110.21.  This goes to show that there is truly a large built-in audience for fans of Carole King’s music, and that the demand does not necessarily depend on the casting.  While Beautiful had weekly grosses in the $700,000 to $800,000 range throughout most of the summer, if this past week is any indication, it is back on track to performing at its highest levels.  Meanwhile, the newest musical to come to Broadway – Holiday Inn, The New Irving Berlin Musical – is not doing very well.  In its second week of previews, playing seven performances as opposed to last week’s four, Holiday Inn brought in $276,244, which represents just 32.42% of its gross potential.  While there is also a large built-in audience of Irving Berlin fans, the songs are just not as fresh for the Broadway stage, and the story may very well be much more stale.  Once the reviews come out following the opening night on October 6, 2016, it will be clear whether Holiday Inn will have legs to stick around for very much longer.

The following are the Broadway ticket sales numbers for the week ending September 11, 2016:broadway-show-ticket-analysis-09-11-16

# Show Name GrossGross TotalAttn %Capacity AvgPdAdm
4 ALADDIN $1,254,386 12,717 92.05% $98.64
9 AN AMERICAN IN PARIS $846,174 10,678 79.50% $79.24
7 BEAUTIFUL $901,959 8,184 99.71% $110.21
6 CATS $959,068 9,724 88.40% $98.63
18 CHICAGO $598,792 7,691 89.02% $77.86
17 FIDDLER ON THE ROOF $606,533 7,609 55.72% $79.71
22 FUN HOME $521,567 5,519 93.23% $94.50
1 HAMILTON $2,150,229 10,753 101.75% $199.97
23 HOLIDAY INN $276,244 4,126 58.94% $66.95
19 JERSEY BOYS $593,985 6,757 68.78% $87.91
14 KINKY BOOTS $703,823 7,922 69.54% $88.84
16 MATILDA $636,363 8,908 77.76% $71.44
13 ON YOUR FEET! $763,016 8,201 63.05% $93.04
8 PARAMOUR $892,797 11,122 73.33% $80.27
12 SCHOOL OF ROCK $767,236 8,632 72.17% $88.88
21 SOMETHING ROTTEN! $524,945 6,596 61.48% $79.59
5 THE BOOK OF MORMON $1,230,293 8,692 101.92% $141.54
15 THE COLOR PURPLE $642,456 7,403 88.05% $86.78
20 THE HUMANS $574,625 6,366 76.88% $90.26
2 THE LION KING $1,713,029 12,875 94.89% $133.05
10 THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA $833,788 9,932 77.35% $83.95
11 WAITRESS $770,055 6,593 78.86% $116.80
3 WICKED $1,393,168 14,814 99.21% $94.04
TOTALS $20,154,528 201,814 80.94% $97.48

Broadway ticket sales raw data are provided courtesy of The Broadway League. All other data, text, opinion, charts and commentary are copyright © 2016 nytix.com

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Michael's passion for Broadway and statistics came together perfectly for his assignment as "Broadway Sales Analyst" at New York Show Tickets Inc. He loves to forecast future Broadway ticket sales, diagnose breaking trends and can spot Broadway show winners and losers long before the rest of the crowd. Favorite Celebrity: Ashton Kutcher
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