Broadway Show Ticket Sales Analysis w/e 02/28/2016

This week’s notable movements on Broadway are:

Broadway Continues Winter Slump with Lower Box Office Sales

In the week ending February 28, 2016, the overall Broadway industry continued to experience a decline in box office sales, even more than the previous week.  Of the 31 shows presently running, the entire industry brought in a collective gross of $20,011,016, which is a decrease of $3,402,233 from the week before, despite there being one more production running.  While the average gross per show this past week was $645,517, the previous week had an average per show gross of $807,353.  Overall, this represents 54.93% of the industry’s box office potential.  The average paid for an admission ticket was $91.45, and the average audience capacity across all performances of all shows was 74.64%, down from 83.66% last week.  Of the 31 shows currently running which were also running in full swing last week, only two saw an increase in sales.  The Humans, a Scott Rudin-produced play transferred from a recent Off-Broadway run at the Laura Pels Theatre, brought in the still modest gross of $344,276, which is an increase of $93,736 from the week before.  The second increase was seen by Hamilton; the only surprise there is that there was any way that show could squeeze any more dollars out of its gross potential.  This past week, it brought in a weekly gross of $1,755,010, which is an increase of $4,086, representing 131.5% of its gross potential.  Meanwhile, huge decreases were seen by long-running hit musicals such as Wicked, with a decrease of $451,364, School of Rock, with a decrease of $431,427, The Lion King, with a decrease of $382,600, Aladdin, with a decrease of $334,907, Finding Neverland, with a decrease of $301,009, Matilda, with a decrease of $281,960, and Phantom of the Opera, with a decrease of $211,421.

Two New Shows: “Eclipsed” and “Bright Star”

On February 23, 2016, Eclipsed began previews at the John Golden Theatre, starring Academy Award winner Lupita Nyong’o in an ensemble cast that also includes Pascale Armand, Akosua Busia, Zainab Jah, and Saycon Sengbloh.  In its first week of 7 performances, it brought in $400,315, which represents 55.8% of its gross potential.  With a top ticket price of $198, the average paid admission was $73.30, and the average audience capacity was filled up to 97.3%.  As word of mouth spreads that Lupita Nyong’o is on Broadway, and certainly after reviews come out following the opening on March 6, 2016, chances are that sales will pick up as well.  Furthermore, on February 25, 2016, a new musical called Bright Star, created by beloved actor-comedian Steve Martin and Grammy Award winning singer-songwriter Edie Brickell, began previews at the Cort Theatre.  In its first week of 4 performances, Bright Star brought in $206,573, which represents 44.3% of its gross potential.  With a top ticket price of $248, the average paid admission was $63.80, and the average audience capacity was filled up to 77.2%.  Unlike Eclipsed, Bright Star does not have a Hollywood A-lister on its marquee.  Still, the cast has some exciting Broadway regulars such as Paul Alexander Nolan, Michael Mulheren, A.J. Shively, Hannah Elless, Stephen Bogardus, Dee Hoty, Jeff Blumenkrantz, Emily Padgett, and Stephen Lee Anderson.  In the end, however, the names that will attract the most box office traction are the creators: Steve Martin and Edie Brickell.

The following are the Broadway ticket sales numbers for the week ending February 28, 2016:Broadway show ticket analysis 02-28-16

# Show Name GrossGross TotalAttn %Capacity AvgPdAdm
5 ALADDIN $1,151,986 13,150 95.18% $87.60
12 AN AMERICAN IN PARIS $690,631 7,972 59.35% $86.63
7 BEAUTIFUL $793,832 6,763 82.40% $117.38
22 BLACKBIRD $399,452 5,545 68.36% $72.04
30 BRIGHT STAR $206,573 3,238 77.24% $63.80
26 CHICAGO $342,737 4,387 50.78% $78.13
29 DISASTER! $261,661 5,195 54.20% $50.37
21 ECLIPSED $400,315 5,461 97.27% $73.30
8 FIDDLER ON THE ROOF $773,083 8,816 64.56% $87.69
20 FINDING NEVERLAND $455,737 6,077 50.51% $74.99
24 FUN HOME $386,312 4,922 83.14% $78.49
1 HAMILTON $1,755,010 10,756 101.78% $163.17
28 HUGHIE $280,732 5,074 82.16% $55.33
18 JERSEY BOYS $482,602 5,414 55.11% $89.14
13 KINKY BOOTS $634,622 6,747 59.23% $94.06
10 LES MISÉRABLES $736,402 8,483 75.26% $86.81
16 MATILDA $528,382 7,222 63.04% $73.16
19 NOISES OFF $475,948 5,687 96.06% $83.69
6 ON YOUR FEET! $829,058 8,494 65.30% $97.61
31 OUR MOTHER’S BRIEF AFFAIR $179,194 3,555 68.37% $50.41
11 SCHOOL OF ROCK $720,585 9,100 79.66% $79.19
27 SHE LOVES ME $337,093 5,202 64.51% $64.80
14 SOMETHING ROTTEN! $582,997 8,100 71.18% $71.97
3 THE BOOK OF MORMON $1,300,231 8,672 101.69% $149.93
9 THE COLOR PURPLE $751,469 7,359 87.52% $102.12
23 THE CURIOUS INCIDENT OF THE DOG IN THE NIGHT-TIME $392,453 5,215 64.03% $75.25
25 THE HUMANS $344,276 4,271 92.37% $80.61
15 THE KING AND I $534,179 5,794 69.17% $92.20
2 THE LION KING $1,469,120 13,536 99.76% $108.53
17 THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA $518,384 6,547 50.99% $79.18
4 WICKED $1,295,960 12,055 83.39% $107.50
Totals $20,011,010 218,809 74.63% $86.29

Broadway ticket sales raw data are provided courtesy of The Broadway League All other data, text, opinion, charts and commentary are copyright © 2016 nytix.com

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Michael Tubbs
Michael's passion for Broadway and statistics came together perfectly for his assignment as "Broadway Sales Analyst" at New York Show Tickets Inc. He loves to forecast future Broadway ticket sales, diagnose breaking trends and can spot Broadway show winners and losers long before the rest of the crowd. Favorite Celebrity: Ashton Kutcher
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